Climate & Decarbonization
United States
Emissions Trends: U.S. greenhouse gas emissions showed a mixed trajectory through 2025. After a 1.9% drop in 2023 (17.2% below 2005 levels) 1 2 , emissions plateaued in 2024 and rose again in 2025 amid policy shifts. Notably, a spike in coal-fired power generation (up ~12% in 2025) and increased oil/gas activity led to higher carbon output 3 4 . Power-sector emissions jumped ~4.4% in 2025 – the second consecutive annual rise – even as wind and solar continued to expand 4 . This uptick underscored that the current pace of decarbonization remains too slow to meet the Paris Agreement goal of a 50-52% cut by 2030; analysts note the U.S. would need sustained emissions declines triple the recent rate to stay on track 2 . Still, there were positive signs: coal’s role on the grid hit a record low (~17% of generation in 2023) 5 , and for the second year in a row, wind and solar together generated more U.S. electricity than coal 6 . By 2025, renewables (including hydropower) routinely provided about 20% of U.S. power 7 . The rapid growth of solar was a highlight – utility-scale solar output jumped ~31% in 2025 3 , aided by a record surge in new installations. In fact, despite political headwinds, solar and battery projects made up over 80% of new generation capacity added in 2025 8 , reflecting strong market momentum. Natural gas remained the largest electricity source (~40% in 2025) but saw a slight dip in generation due to high fuel prices, while nuclear held steady 9 4 . Overall energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2025 were roughly back to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the challenge ahead in bending the curve downward.
Climate Adaptation: The United States released an unprecedented National Adaptation and Resilience Strategy in January 2025 – a sweeping 898-page blueprint outlining how the nation should prepare for climate impacts 10 . The strategy emphasizes strengthening infrastructure and using advanced tools (including AI) to boost climate resilience 11 12 . For example, it highlights using machine learning to model coastal erosion and improve early warning systems for climate-exacerbated hazards like wildfires and vector-borne disease outbreaks 13 14 . Federal agencies are already piloting novel technologies: the Department of Energy is mapping community-level climate vulnerabilities with AI, and DHS is deploying AI-enabled wildfire sensors to detect fires faster 15 16 . Despite this progress, adaptation efforts remain fragmented across agencies 17 . The U.S. still lacks a unified national resilience law, relying instead on a patchwork of programs (FEMA flood mitigation grants, USDA climate-smart agriculture, Army Corps projects, etc.) 17 18 . In 2025, a tension emerged between long-term resilience planning and immediate disaster recovery needs: under new leadership, the federal government shifted focus toward post-disaster aid at the expense of pre-disaster programs. In a controversial move, FEMA terminated the flagship BRIC resilience grant program in April 2025, calling it “wasteful” and canceling $882 million in resilience projects mid-stream 19 20 . Experts condemned this as “beyond reckless,” noting hazard mitigation saves up to $8 for every $1 spent and that cutting off funds will leave communities more vulnerable 21 20 . Overall, 2025 highlighted both growing climate risks – from record heat waves to wildfire smoke – and the importance of cohesive adaptation strategies, even as federal support for resilience became uncertain.
Just Transition Planning: Ensuring a “just transition” for fossil fuel-reliant communities remained a central but challenging aspect of U.S. climate policy in 2025. The Biden Administration had seeded multiple programs to assist coal country – for instance, the Interagency Working Group on Coal & Power Plant Communities and economic grants through the Appalachian Regional Commission and EDA – and the 2021 infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act provided significant funding targeted at “energy communities.” Those efforts continued, but 2025 brought political change that affected federal priorities. The new administration voiced strong support for coal and oil jobs, even as market forces continued to favor clean energy. Federal transition assistance became a patchwork: on one hand, historic investments in cleaning up legacy pollution were rolled out, aimed at revitalizing coal regions. Through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Interior Department began channeling nearly $11.3 billion to reclaim abandoned coal mines over 15 years – funding expected to address almost all currently inventoried mines nationwide 22 . That cleanup effort is explicitly designed to employ ex-coal workers and spur new economic uses on restored lands 23 24 , exemplifying just-transition principles. (In fiscal year 2025 alone, $725 million in AML grants were made available to states, with bonus criteria to hire displaced miners 25 23 .) At the same time, other transition supports faced headwinds. The administration moved to prop up coal-fired power plants (invoking emergency authority to delay closures) 26 27 and rescinded some clean energy funds (like transmission grants) seen as threatening to the fossil industry 28 29 . This raised concerns that short-term job protections were being prioritized over longer-term diversification. Nonetheless, many communities forged ahead with transition plans: for example, in Wyoming and Appalachia, local authorities leveraged federal grants to retrain workers in reclamation, solar installation, and manufacturing. The IRA’s energy community bonus tax credits also drove new clean energy projects to coal towns, creating jobs. In summary, 2025 was a year of cross-currents: significant federal money flowed to coal regions for cleanup and economic redevelopment (a win-win for jobs and the environment) 30 31 , even as broader climate policies to phase down fossil fuels stalled. The imperative of balancing the “just transition” – helping workers and communities adapt as the energy economy shifts – remained at the forefront of the national conversation, with progress uneven across different levels of government.
Pennsylvania
Emissions and Policy: Pennsylvania, as a major energy producer and industrial state, faced complex decarbonization challenges in 2025. The state’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory has flatlined in recent years, reflecting its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Electricity generation – historically a top emitter – has seen coal use plummet but natural gas surge. As of 2023, nearly 60% of Pennsylvania’s power was generated from natural gas, ~32% from nuclear, 5–6% from coal, and under 4% from renewables 32 . This overdependence on gas and lagging deployment of renewables contributed to rising electricity rates, with statewide power prices projected to jump up to 29% in 2025 33 . Against this backdrop, the biggest climate policy development was Pennsylvania’s reversal on joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). In a major November 2025 budget deal, Governor Josh Shapiro agreed to withdraw Pennsylvania from RGGI – an interstate cap-and-trade program for power plant CO₂ – as a concession to legislative Republicans 34 35 . This decision effectively ended the state’s only imminent carbon pricing plan, a move critics called a “devastating setback” for climate action 36 37 . (RGGI could have yielded over $1 billion annually for Pennsylvania to invest in clean energy and energy eficiency 37 .) Shapiro, who had long been skeptical of RGGI’s approach, argued that removing the RGGI “distraction” might open the door to a Pennsylvania-specific climate strategy 38 . He proposed an alternative Energy Communities Trust Fund and a modest increase to the state’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard – but those measures require bipartisan legislation and remained uncertain in 2025 38 39 . In the meantime, the budget provided only small gestures (e.g. an extra $25 million for school solar grants) – “minuscule” steps relative to what RGGI would have achieved, as one lawmaker noted 40 . Overall, Pennsylvania entered 2025 without a clear emissions reduction mandate or updated statewide climate target. The state did meet its short-term goal of a 26% emissions cut by 2025 (from 2005 levels) on paper – largely thanks to market-driven coal plant closures – but further gains are uncertain. With RGGI off the table, Pennsylvania’s climate policy now hinges on piecemeal efforts: working with industry to curb methane leaks, incentivizing renewables, and possibly revisiting a state carbon program in the future.
Climate Adaptation: Pennsylvania has increasingly emphasized resilience and adaptation, recognizing the mounting impacts of extreme weather. The state’s 2021 Climate Action Plan outlined numerous adaptation strategies (from flood-proofing infrastructure to helping farmers cope with changing growing seasons), and these efforts continued in 2025. For example, flood mitigation has been a priority – Pennsylvania directed more resources to upgrade stormwater systems and restore floodplains, especially after severe flash floods hit communities in 2023–2024. (One July 2023 cloudburst in Bucks County caused deadly flash flooding, underscoring the risk of intense rain.) By 2025, the state was expanding flood warning systems and pursuing buyouts of frequently flooded homes in vulnerable watersheds. Heat resiliency is also on the agenda: urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh opened additional cooling centers and launched tree-planting programs to combat rising summer heat. Pennsylvania’s Department of Health worked on heat emergency response plans as the number of days over 90°F increases. Additionally, air quality emergencies gained attention when smoke from Canadian wildfires drifted into Pennsylvania in summer 2025, causing hazardous air in Philadelphia and other cities. This prompted the state to develop more robust protocols for air quality alerts and encourage the use of N95 masks and air filtration during smoke events. Overall, while Pennsylvania does not have a standalone “Climate Adaptation Plan,” its agencies are integrating resilience into planning. The Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) updated the State Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2025, prioritizing climate-related risks like flooding, extreme heat, and even drought. The state also tapped federal funds (when available) for resilience – for instance, applying for FEMA BRIC grants to finance levee improvements and green infrastructure. (However, the sudden federal halt of the BRIC program in 2025 left some Pennsylvania projects in limbo 21 .) In short, Pennsylvania in 2025 was reactively building resilience to climate impacts, even as mitigation policy stalled.
Just Transition Efforts: Pennsylvania’s economy has long been intertwined with coal, steel, and now shale gas, so managing the transition to a greener economy is a delicate task. In 2025, the state saw both the pain and promise of this transition. On one hand, several coal-fired power plants that had been economic pillars closed in recent years – most notably the massive Homer City Generating Station (Indiana County), which was the largest coal plant in the state until its shutdown in 2023. By 2025, Homer City’s smokestacks were demolished, and plans moved forward to reinvent the site as a 3,200-acre campus featuring a 4.4 GW natural gas power plant and a data center 41 42 . State and local leaders hailed this as an investment in the community’s future, preserving jobs and tax base. However, environmental groups quickly pointed out the trade-offs: the proposed gas plant would emit more CO₂ annually than all passenger cars in Pennsylvania, potentially undermining climate goals 43 . In late 2025, three advocacy groups appealed the plant’s air permit, arguing that such a project violates Pennsylvania’s Environmental Rights Amendment (which guarantees citizens clean air and water) 44 45 . This clash in Homer City encapsulates Pennsylvania’s just transition challenge – finding new economic uses for old energy sites without locking in new pollution for decades. The Shapiro administration has tried to straddle this line. Governor Shapiro has stressed the need to create jobs in clean energy and support coal communities, but he has also prioritized streamlining permits to attract investment. In fact, his administration launched the “PA y Back” and “SPEED” permitting programs to expedite environmental approvals for projects, aiming to provide “concierge-level service” to businesses 46 47 . By 2025, this faster permitting helped move projects like the Homer City redevelopment forward, yet it drew criticism that DEP was cutting corners on environmental review to appease industry 48 47 . Beyond power plants, Pennsylvania leveraged federal aid for transitioning its workforce. The state aggressively went after federal grants for coal community revitalization – for example, Abandoned Mine Land Economic Revitalization (AMLER) funds were used to repurpose old mining sites and train workers in reclamation. The infusion of $244 million in FY2024 federal AML funds (the largest in the nation) was put toward projects that clean up mine pollution while creating local jobs 49 24 . These included projects to treat acid mine drainage, develop industrial parks on reclaimed land, and even install solar farms on former mine lands. One bright spot: after decades of decline, southwestern Pennsylvania saw small-scale success in attracting clean energy manufacturing – for instance, a battery component factory announced for a former brownfield in Westmoreland County, drawn by tax credits for locating in a “energy community.” Overall, Pennsylvania’s approach to a just transition in 2025 was incremental. The state lacks a formal just transition plan, but through various programs and a focus on “jobs, jobs, jobs,” it is trying to ensure that communities from Greene County’s coal fields to Philadelphia’s refinery district are not left behind as the energy landscape evolves. The tension between economic growth (even via new gas projects) and environmental protection remains sharp, making the “just transition” an ongoing negotiation in the Keystone State.
